In an interview posted online by United Daily News (UDN) on May 26, current Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) was asked about Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) replacing him as party chair.
Though not yet officially running, by the customs of Taiwan politics, Lu has been signalling she is both running for party chair and to be the party’s 2028 presidential candidate.
She told an international media outlet that she was considering a run. She also gave a speech in Keelung on national priorities and foreign affairs. For details, see the May 23 edition of this column, “Lu Shiow-yen signals her challenge to KMT leadership.”
Photo: Liao Yao-tung, Taipei Times
Usually, party chairs are also the party’s presumed presidential candidate. Reports from the Lu camp suggest that she wants to unify the party and the presidential campaign to avoid internal divisions.
And she was gaining momentum. People were lining up behind her, including party heavyweight Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), the former legislative speaker.
Chu appeared to be flailing, pandering to the extreme base by railing against the “dictator” President William Lai (賴清德) and unapologetically comparing him to Hitler. The base turns out to vote, so this sharp turn made sense in combating both the ongoing recall campaigns and in the party chair race.
Photo: Tsai Shu-yuan, Taipei Times
None of this was blunting Lu’s rise, however.
CHU’S SURPRISE
Then came Chu’s bombshell UDN interview.
In it, he said of Lu potentially succeeding him as party chair: “Actually, my feeling is that I very much look forward to a smooth handover.”
He also touted how close their relationship is and noted that while people try to intervene to cause division, the relationship is so close that “it’s really difficult!”
Chu reflected that when he decided to run for party chair four years ago, he knew it was a role that required sacrifice and dedication, “but I did not anticipate the difficulties and hardships.”
Every day demands the greatest effort and responsibility, facing all possible pressures and attacks, with absolutely no resources to speak of, he said.
He recounted that since taking office, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has accumulated over NT$100 million (US$3.34 million) in debt. The party has experienced county and city mayoral elections, the presidential election, a new political landscape of “minority ruling, majority opposition” and this year faced a major recall and “judicial persecution” by the DPP.
Regarding these challenges, he said, “This is what I should do. Since I made this commitment, I have dedicated myself to the party for these four years. I will fight until the last day.”
He said from day one he has emphasized selflessness and putting the party first.
“I am the head coach. Do you still expect me to go on the field and play? How could I play? Of course, I have to find the best players,” he said.
Much of the media took this to mean Chu was throwing in the towel and paving the way for Lu to take over. It is possible, perhaps he is tired.
But that is not how KMT politicians interpreted the interview.
BETWEEN THE LINES
Notice Chu did not say at any point he was not running for reelection.
On the surface, it may seem odd to emphasize how good his relationship with Lu is and his “how could I play” comment, but it makes perfect sense if his message is that he is a natural ally as party chair, “coaching” her towards winning the presidency.
His “woe is me” sounding “I did not anticipate the difficulties and hardships beyond imagination,” is a warning and a reminder he is up to the job. He goes through the challenges in detail, and any KMT politician, including Lu herself, will recognize the magnitude of the job.
Leading an entire party through election cycles is not a job for the fainthearted, and he has proven very capable. Though the KMT lost the 2024 presidential race, under Chu, the party’s fortunes have revived significantly. They won the 2022 local elections in a landslide and in 2024 restored the party’s status as the largest in the legislature and, along with their Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) allies, majority control.
The unexpected recall onslaught is challenging the party, and if their pan-blue coalition loses their legislative majority, the party will be in disarray. If Lu is serious about running, she is going to have to act like a leader of the party as the recalls unfold over the summer, potentially bringing down her own brand.
The myriad investigations of alleged fraud involving forgery and signing up dead people from KMT membership rolls in KMT-led recalls will also be another headache for the party chair if they go to trial — especially if investigations lead higher up in the party than local branches. This potential public relations disaster could be ongoing well into next year, if not longer, and the chair will need to cope with the fallout.
Chu also pointedly referred to the KMT accumulating over NT$100 million in debt during his tenure, which may sound like an unusual selling point, but is in fact a stark warning. Following the passage of the ill-gotten gains act, since the late 2010s party assets seized during the one-party state era have been frozen for return to public coffers.
This meant that the KMT had to live within its means as other parties do, but having used their extensive wealth for years to reward party loyalists with jobs and perks, they were left with massive liabilities. Chu raising over NT$100 million just adds to an already gigantic debt load.
Who are the creditors that the KMT owes this money to? This is largely unknown to the public, as are any repayment conditions. Are there hidden landmines that could potentially bankrupt the party, have politically sensitive links to China, or both?
While Chu has worked diligently to cut costs and streamline the party, that he has had to raise over NT$100 million suggests that either the party is still unable to cover expenses, has to continuously roll over debt to continue to outrun creditors, or both.
This was a harsh reminder that whoever the chair is will also need to be constantly fundraising.
POISONED CHALICE
Between the lines, Chu’s interview was a sobering wake-up call for the KMT. It is exciting to plan for a future presidential run led by a party unified by a single candidate, but the hard reality of the challenges facing the party currently must be dealt with.
Chu’s comments sharply altered the tone within the KMT about the chair election. Figures within the party abruptly began calling for ending divisive internal debates about the race, with one lawmaker calling for the chair election to be suspended to deal with more immediate challenges.
The very next day after the release of Chu’s interview, Global Views Monthly released their latest poll on satisfaction with local government administrations. Though reading too much into one poll is risky, this did show Mayor Lu’s administration dropping to third place among the big six metropolises with a sharp 8.5 percent drop. Lu’s term ends a year and a half from now.
Chu threw down the gauntlet to Lu: “Can you juggle all these crises at party headquarters in Taipei while simultaneously maintaining your popularity by doing a good job as mayor of Taichung?”
In this context, Chu saying “I very much look forward to a smooth handover” sounds more like a threat than an endorsement.
Lu has been very quiet on the topic since the interview.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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